Irrelevance Result for Systematic Monetary Policy

For the U.S. and nations in Europe today, it’s common for the central bank to implement countercycle monetary policy. That means reining in the money supply when the economy is booming, and accelerating money when there’s a recession.

While some economists believe this affects the economy in the way the central banks are aiming for, other economists beg to differ. They say that people know what to expect from the central banks from their predictable behavior based on the economy. Since people have expectations, they adapt to them, raising or lowering prices accordingly, which kind of takes the corrective power out of the central banks’ hands.

Because there’s no element of surprise, people adjust accordingly to what they expect the Fed to do, resulting in no change at all...called the “irrelevance result.”

In other words, when the Fed jumps up behind you and says surprise! with their monetary policy, that’s when it works. But when you know the Fed is there (and you prepare accordingly for the impending “scare”), well, then you’re not so scared, so the surprise fails to have an effect on you.

When people respond to the predictable behavior of the central bank’s monetary policy, they call it the irrelevance result for the systematic monetary policy. It’s “irrelevant” because the monetary policy didn’t have an effect, and it’s “systematic” because people were not surprised….not at all.

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Finance: What is Fiscal Policy v. Moneta...5 Views

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And finance Allah shmoop What is the difference between fiscal

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policy and monetary policy Okay well you find yourself at

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a party with a bunch of economists first Sorry Yeah

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You need a wider array of friends clearly here And

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second if you have to be there anyway why not

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throw some gasoline on the conversational fire Now at least

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poke the social corpse Well here's what you d'Oh ask

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whether they're monitoring CE or Keane's Ian's Yeah we know

00:31

that doesn't sound like much but believe us with economists

00:33

all would turn this into this or maybe even into

00:37

this which will really stir the pot All right well

00:40

why Because monitoring us and Kenyans focus on different aspects

00:44

of government to impact the economy you could say they

00:47

uh you know believe in different magic monitor its focus

00:51

on monetary policy Surprise surprise and Keane's Ian's focus on

00:56

fiscal policy Okay monitoring they're all about the money Like

01:00

you know Jerry Maguire's guy Show me the money They

01:03

believe that by changing the money supply the government can

01:07

impact the economy Well how does the government supply money

01:10

Well the short answer is that the government prints the

01:13

money Yeah that cash in your pocket it comes from

01:16

somewhere but the actual process is more complicated The main

01:19

actor here in the U S Is the Federal Reserve

01:22

which is the U S central bank Every currency will

01:25

have a central bank That's the thing that controls the

01:27

money supply And you could say that the Fed controls

01:30

the flow of dollars Well how does it do this

01:33

magic key thing Well to fight recession the Fed can

01:35

lower interest rates Cutting rates makes cheap money so that

01:39

well people can borrow easily And then they get more

01:42

stuff for more of it to spend on stuff you

01:45

know to buy stuff which makes the economy go running

01:47

around well The Fed can also lower reserve requirements for

01:51

banks so that banks don't have to keep his much

01:54

collateral or cash in stock And then they can loan

01:57

out more money basically making more money available in the

02:00

the system More liquidity in the system cheaper easier available

02:04

money for people to borrow and or the Fed can

02:07

buy securities like swapping cash for equities or debt All

02:11

right so it's supplying the economy Then with cash Ola

02:14

and the Fed does stuff like this all the time

02:16

They're adding cash to the system and then drawing it

02:18

out later The more dollars out there while the more

02:21

there is to spend think about it like grocery store's

02:24

having a whole bunch of cassava melons on a warm

02:26

day They've got to get those melons out to the

02:28

public and get him eaten or well they end up

02:31

looking like this Yeah well the buzzword for your wild

02:34

and crazy party times is expansionary As an expansionary monetary

02:40

policy that is this set of activities is aimed at

02:42

expanding the growth prospects of the economy by making it

02:46

easier for buyers to buy You know like J T

02:49

sings at Bye baby Bye baby Bye baby So that's

02:53

on the stimulus side Growing a week or anemic economy

02:57

But what about when the central bank wants to fight

02:59

inflation because things have gotten too hot Well the value

03:01

of a dollar then is plummeting and old people who

03:04

have to hold secure safe low interest rate bonds are

03:06

losing buying power and they have to live in their

03:09

station wagons than down by the river What happens then

03:12

Well to fight inflation The central bank then tries to

03:15

contract the money supply puts it right on Weight Watchers

03:18

Basically it does the opposite of all of the previous

03:21

things It raises interest rates and raises bank collateral or

03:26

reserve minimums And it sells securities like it sells its

03:30

own T bills cash out of the system and putting

03:34

in its place well a bunch of paper promises to

03:36

pay it all back someday Well the goal here is

03:39

to take money out of the system right Higher interest

03:41

rates and higher bank reserves make it harder and or

03:44

more expensive for Joe Consumer and Joe Corporation to borrow

03:48

money moves then more slowly through the economy Less cash

03:51

is in the system so it means less of it

03:53

to go around Yeah inflation then is knocked out or

03:56

at least friction ized or made slower Okay that's monetary

04:00

policy using the money supply to control the economy On

04:03

the other side of the coin are that Kenyans who

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have a long history of being excellent runners the high

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altitudes develop amazing lungs Wait wait That's something different Editor

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he given the wrong paragraph Okay well that Keen's Ian's

04:15

Air Actually economists named after John Maynard Keen's and well

04:19

their economic magic is all about well managing the government

04:24

like new spending that well the government will take on

04:27

and then used to optimize whatever its vision of the

04:29

perfect economy is Okay So what does all this mean

04:32

While the process is generally called fiscal policy right Well

04:35

the main player this time is not the Federal Reserve

04:39

It's Congress and the president right It's the government getting

04:42

directly involved in managing the economy well Politicians hoping to

04:46

improve economic conditions have two main tools at their disposal

04:50

Fortunately for them and for the rest of us the

04:52

basic principle behind them are pretty simple The core thinking

04:55

is that inflation and recession are opposites of one another

04:59

During periods of recession there isn't enough money circulating in

05:03

the economy It's constipated During periods of inflation there's too

05:07

much money It's just gotten home from Indonesian food So

05:10

the answers to these problems and well so either put

05:13

money in or take money out of the economy As

05:15

a result when the economy is tanking the government can

05:18

increase its own spending or lower taxes When times are

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bad people are out of work and businesses don't have

05:24

customers So Keens said the government should come in and

05:27

make up the difference Big Momma Government Yeah buy stuff

05:31

employed People put people on the dole dig holes filling

05:34

back up Where does the money come from Taxes Eventually

05:37

deficit spending Borrowing now on the other side of things

05:40

to fight inflation Well then the government does the reverse

05:43

The economy's going crazy Inflation is building bubbles or forming

05:46

tokens Ian Think the government should play a party pooper

05:49

here Raised taxes suck money out of the economy Meanwhile

05:53

the government curves its own spending so it doesn't add

05:55

to the wild party time right till the problem Government's

05:58

rarely do of this part People hate party pooper they

06:01

don't vote for them And members of Congress and the

06:04

president are elected by yes the people When times are

06:07

good politicians just want them to be better Maur Deficit

06:10

Spending More Borrowing Well the people the Federal Reserve have

06:13

the advantage of not being elected and the average Joe

06:16

six pack and not really knowing what they do well

06:19

it gives the Fed a lot more freedom to be

06:21

party poopers Alright recap time Fiscal policy involves government spending

06:26

in taxes while monetary policy involves the money supply in

06:29

the U S Congress and the president run fiscal policy

06:32

While the Federal Reserve runs monetary policy to stimulate the

06:36

economy the Fed can lower interest rates lower bank reserve

06:40

requirements or by security's on the open market which creates

06:44

more cash out there in the fields It's attempt down

06:47

the economy The Fed would reverse these like raise rates

06:50

increase bank reserve requirements and sell securities On the physical

06:53

side the government can pump up the economy by lowering

06:56

taxes and increasing spending to slow things down It can

06:59

raise taxes and lower its own spending right So yeah

07:02

that's fiscal v monetary policy Thus smackdown Of course Well

07:07

there's also honesty which if you ask most kindly grandmothers

07:10

is the best policy But it didn't work in politics

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