In a sense, Bilbo is the worst burglar ever because he's too moral to keep anything he steals. He is willing to let the Arkenstone go to Bard so that Bard can negotiate for "all of [Bilbo's] claim" on Thorin's treasure. (Dain does, in fact, honor this deal, so that one-fourteenth of Thorin's treasure goes to Bard after his death.) How do the dwarves and Gandalf decide that burglary is what Bilbo would be good at? What seems to be the job description for a burglar, according to the dwarves?

Roäc the raven isn't just a messenger. He also tells Thorin when he's being an idiot. For example, Thorin is counting on Dain and his reinforcements to hold the Lonely Mountain against Bard and the Elvenking. But Dain can't get into the Lonely Mountain without fighting his way through the valley where the elves and men are camped. And then what? Does Thorin just want to stay at war with everyone around him, just for treasure? Tolkien represents treasure as an actual sickness that can overcome your reason just like any other mental illness. This isn't his idea alone; according to Anderson's Annotated Hobbit, Tolkien gets his ideas about the maddening effects of treasure from the Old English epic Beowulf.

When Bilbo sneaks down to Bard's camp with the Arkenstone in hand, he's "merely trying to avoid trouble for all concerned." What do you think of Bilbo's plan? Would it have worked to avoid war in the long run if the goblins and Wargs had never turned up?